Thoughts on Shamiana at Southwell tomorrow

Shamiana runs in the 4.10 at Southwell tomorrow (Tuesday 4th of March). Richard Kingscote takes the ride in the 7 furlong handicap. Shamiana has been very consistent since joining the yard, in five runs to date she has been, third three times and fourth once. She’s always shown just enough to suggest that should things fall her way she is capable of winning a small race. She’s sent mixed messages as to her most suitable trip – on occassions travelling well before failing to really finish on other days she has stayed on well. She is essentially one paced and doesn’t have the ability quicken. She ran well enough on her only start at Southwell so far, finishing third to two superior rivals in a mile maiden, they style of racing there seemed to suit her and she travelled on the surface. The drop to seven furlongs is new for her since joining the yard and might be a bit sharp but the qualifying ratings required made this race a good fit for her. She has run well enough previously over seven that it is worth having a crack. She’s in good heart at home and came out of her last race very well.

This is a basement level race and there could be any number of results, with a lot of exposed horses on show. Au Renoir is the odd horse out having had just the three runs, she has shown very little on those starts but is dropped quite a bit in trip so maybe this has been the plan for her. De Lesseps recent course and distance victory over a couple of these has to mean he is high on the list. Chez Vrony has to be forgiven a poor recent effort but hadn’t been far away from winning before that and could play a part. Once upon a time Elusive Warrior would have seen off this field comfortably, he is getting on now but he is ridden by a much more experienced jockey than of late and that might be to his benefit.